Container shipping rates on major trade lanes appear to be stabilising after years of extreme volatility, though ongoing Red Sea disruption continues to create uncertainty.
Rate Trends
Asia-Australia Rates
- Current spot rates: $1,800-2,200/TEU
- Comparison to peak (2021): Down 70%
- Comparison to pre-COVID: Up 40%
Europe-Australia Rates
- Current spot rates: $2,800-3,400/TEU (via Cape)
- Red Sea premium: +$800-1,200/TEU
- Volatility: High due to ongoing disruption
Market Factors
Stabilising Influences
- New vessel capacity entering service
- Inventory destocking largely complete
- Demand patterns normalising
- Carrier capacity discipline improving
Destabilising Factors
- Red Sea diversions reducing effective capacity
- Geopolitical uncertainty
- Potential port labour disruptions
- Environmental regulation impacts
Shipper Implications
For Australian importers and exporters:
- Contract rates increasingly viable vs spot
- Longer-term agreements becoming attractive
- Contingency planning for disruption essential
- Multi-carrier strategies recommended
The market appears to be transitioning toward a new normal, though significantly above pre-pandemic levels.